The Right Leader at the Right Time

Will Barack Obama be a great president, or even a good one? This is very difficult to predict, and depends largely on the people with whom he surrounds himself, his political acumen, and his ability to balance principle and pragmatism. He is certainly very smart, making him a welcome change from the current leadership. But then, Jimmy Carter was a brilliant man and a horrible president. Ronald Reagan was an intellectual lightweight, but had a hugely successful (if also hugely repugnant) presidency.

Still, I have no hesitation in saying that Mr. Obama is exactly the right person to lead this country at this time.

No matter how successful or troubled an Obama presidency might turn out, Mr. Obama has two things going for him that are invaluable and not remotely plausible for John McCain. The first of these is his internationalism and understanding of the roles that diplomacy and multilateralism play in world politics.

In the present climate, in which the unreality of the Bush regime turned most of America either stupid or stultified, it is sometimes easy to forget that diplomacy has always been an indispensable tool of foreign policy and that multilateralism is a way of consolidating strength and not a sign of weakness. But more important than the strategic effect of conducting intelligent foreign policy, for a change, is that fact that Mr. Obama’s administration is likely to be given a fresh look and a second chance by an international community long-since sick of America’s high-handed crap. Like the handsome but overbearing boyfriend that women-who-ought-to-know-better always seem to take back for another round of abuse and disappointment, the world seems to love to give American and endless run of second-chances. After the astonishing goodwill the Bush administration squandered after September 11, and the thoroughness with which this international affection was abused, it is not difficult to imagine a world that finally came to grips with its enabling co-dependency, said enough-is-enough, and sought the diplomatic equivalent of a restraining order. More than one scholar of International affairs has declared that we are already living in a post-American world.

If so, America finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position. It will have lost the ability to dictate terms at a time when the country is deeply in debt, ceding economic advantage to developing economic powers as well as established industrial economies, suffering an education deficit that will systematically reduce the productivity of the economy for decades to come, is built on a rapidly crumbling infrastructure, and has fundamentally crippled its ability to change economic course by habitually capitulating to corporate interests at the expense of broader social interests. Americans are looking at the very-near-term possibility of paying terror-sponsoring dictators for the oil to which we are irrationally addicted in euros, because OPEC is fed-up with the dollar incessantly losing value, even if Americans seem to tolerate it. The American military is stretched to the breaking point and not even able, at this point, to adequately protect or assert American interests abroad, much less to lead the international community in protecting basic humans rights in crisis situations.

If ever there was a time when America needed the world to cut it some slack so it could get its shit together, now’s the time.

If there is anyone the world may just trust with a second chance, it is Mr. Obama. His multi-ethnic, multi-cultural background, and seeming resistance to the delusional, outdated notion of American exceptionalism ought to earn him, at the very least, a grace period of wait-and-see. His election will be a strong message to the world that America has changed course, and is ready to earn back the respect and authority it squandered over the last eight years. The opportunity for a last-ditch, power-preserving reconciliation with its allies and a belated, equilibrium-maintaining détente with its foes is a distinct advantage to an Obama presidency that America will foregoe at its great peril.

Mr. Obama’s second indispensable quality is his potential for real leadership. This part will not be easy. Americans have become addicted to the decades of dope peddled by politicians who govern only by what the polls suggest. New York and Washington are attacked by airplane-flying terrorists? Go shopping! Engaged in a trillion dollar war in the Middle East? Give tax cuts to the wealthy! Voters still don’t understand that the American economy is ultimately undermined by gasoline that is still artificially cheap and over-consumed at $4.00 per gallon? Suggest a government subsidy for the summer driving season! The American electorate no longer shows signs of self-respect or comprehension of its own long-term self-interest. America wants instant, venal gratification. Pandering by politicians is not longer considered unseemly or dishonest; it is accepted as standard operating procedure.

Mr. Obama has, in the course of his primary campaign, show signs of the courage it would take for a politician to actually lead – to shape public opinion in support of the morally correct or realistically exigent, rather than to bend policy to the short-term interests of the powerful few or the misguided whims of populism. (He has, at times, also displayed a disappointing facility with the baser political instincts of his adversaries; but, in fairness, his willingness to get ahead of, and endeavor to shape public opinion is noteworthy, refreshing, and important.) This approach comes at great political risk. The failure to capture the popular imagination when advocating policies that will entail a degree of hardship or sacrifice will spell a one-term presidency. And the probability of success has been significantly lessened by the current political habits in the Land of the Lotus Eaters. But real leadership also promises vast rewards for the security and prosperity of the nation. And, realistically, it’s now-or-never. Many of the major issues confronting America have been neglected for so long, the time to solve them many soon be past. How much longer can the country defer the renewal of infrastructure, rebuilding of the military, true educational reform, paying down the national debt, safeguarding social security and medicare, reversing environmental degradation, and restructuring society and the economy in a way that makes a sustainable energy policy feasible? And without strong leadership, how will America ever be able to tackle chronic structural problems like ensuring health care for all citizens and ridding our economy of the most grotesque forms of cost externalization? And how can America reclaim the glory of its constitutional tradition without a leader who can change the terms of debate away from fear-mongering and back toward the principles of justice and liberty on which the nation was founded?

Mr. Obama has the ability, and the fearlessness, to ask Americans to rise above themselves – to be something better than they are. This entreaty has the potential to stick in the throat of Americans, who are used to being told that they are the greatest, that everything is fine, and that they can have whatever their hearts desire. But true leadership, by its very nature, is also inspirational and invigorating. It has the ability to make us feel part of an adventure larger than perhaps we dared to dream on our own.

If Mr. Obama can succeed in this, his greatness will be established and death knell for the close of the American Age may yet have been premature. If he fails, he will be a one-term president. Still, the Obama experiment will be essentially without cost; because, four more years of international isolation and playing economic ostrich – which a McCain presidency certainly promises – will serve only to ensure that America’s best days will be irremediably behind it anyway.

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